Unconventional Wisdom
Essays for business leaders. “You win by finding errors in conventional wisdom.” — Larry Ellison
Message Testing Before the Moment Passes
Test instinct against reality—before you hit send.
The Right Role for Synthetic Insight
Synthetic insight speeds early learning and iteration, but trust still depends on observed behavior.
The Rosetta Stone for Surveys
Flashpoint.AI uses AI programming and human review to translate surveys across every major platform so teams can choose the right tool without switching costs.
Out-of-Distribution Learning
Why closing the say–do gap requires querying reality, not just rearranging historical data.
Generative R&D and the Say–Do Gap
Why behavioral experiments belong beside surveys to expose where stated intent breaks from real-world choices.
From Prediction Markets to Prediction Engines
Why proprietary behavioral evidence outperforms public odds for strategic questions.
The "Moneyball Moment" for Market Research
Moving beyond surveys and synthetic personas toward Bayesian, in-market behavioral truth.
Move beyond stated preferences toward behavioral proof. Create account